Jeez, so I haven't posted here in a while. Been busy on the job hunt and with school. I am now writing at Above Average America which is a site where I'll be posting my t/a, but mostly more econ related articles and such.
BTW: Note to self - Listen when you speak, because you might say something important. Like being short term bullish. I should have heeded my own advice. I was stupid, stayed short, and got bit in the ass for it. I'm down a hell of a lot in my paper trades, but such is life. You win some, you loose some, and I lost big time. Next time I'll go with the charts.
Anyway -
Right now I'm still short. The gap up on FAZ today is basically confirming my suspicions. No one actually thought the banks were doing well. And people still think Geithner's plan is a pile of crap. The suspension of M2M might turn out to be inconsequential, but I think it has other ramifications outside of the technical aspect with regards to the psyche of wall street.
Either way, I have a near term target of 750 on the SPX, which is going to have to bounce up slightly in a rally, and then I think we'll see the final drop I've been expecting. It isn't over till the fat lady sings, and she has to sing damn loud.
No charts for today, but my current positions are as follows -
Long FAZ
Short /ES
Short GHL
Short ARNA
Long RHT
Another aside here, if I might - Red hat (who my brother works for, full disclosure) is doing extremely well despite the economy. I'm up roughly 9% already and I am holding for a long-term trade. I really like the company, and I think they have plenty of growth potential. Whether or not they live up to the hype is up to my brother and his colleagues. Either way, I think they're good for 20-25 at least, so I'm a buyer until I see a reversal, and even then I'll probably just keep holding.
I believe this will be the move downward that we've been waiting for. The final high volatility, *capitulation* as Atilla Demiray on xtrends calls it.
For it I've loaded up on puts, Calls on the inverse ETFs, a few straddles, and some straight up shorts on the asset.
VIX bounced directly off the bottom of its channel and is heading on its way up. We're going to need to see a spike just like the november lows before I'll be convinced.
Everyone should watch these videos - Ben Bernanke on CBS' 60 Minutes (Part 1&2)
Well, it's pretty much a given now. Dow 6000 is in our sights and it's not letting go. One can see the bearish pennant forming...
For now I'm staying short with BGZ, a 3x ETF, for the Stock market competition. Up 43% give or take .5 right now.
My personal opinion - We're going to see 6000, and we'll linger in the 6000 range for a while, maybe a few weeks, then the rest of the year is going to be trading in the 7000's. We'll see if I'm right. Best case scenario is 9000, worst is 5000. I don't think we'll see lower than 6000 though. At least...I hope not...
Me
haha
